➕ ‘the numbers’ for September are in!


Despite persistent high borrowing costs, elevated inflation, a deceleration in economic growth, and uncertainty surrounding the decision-making process of the Bank of Canada, the Toronto housing market experienced a notable shift. In the face of a surge in property listings, the average price of a Toronto home surged by 5% in comparison to September 2022.


Notably, the dynamics varied within the housing market itself. Average selling prices for detached homes rose by an impressive 9%, semi-detached homes saw a 6% increase, while townhomes experienced a 5% uptick. In contrast, the condo market segment witnessed a 5% decline compared to the previous year.


With the influx of new listings, Toronto's Real Estate market has unmistakably transitioned into a Buyer's market. This shift suggests that prospective buyers may have already begun to, and are likely to continue, wield greater negotiating power, at least in the short term.


Looking further into the future, a consensus exists that borrowing costs will remain elevated until mid-2024. At this juncture, we anticipate a substantial surge in housing demand driven by the prospect of lower borrowing rates and unprecedented population growth.




Looking to buy or sell a home in Toronto?  Average prices in September were as follows:


➕Detached $1,724,007 [+9% vs. 2022]
➕Semi-detached $1,281,956 [+6% vs. 2022]
➕Townhouse $992,319 [+5% vs. 2022]
➕Condo $732,106 [-5% vs. 2022]

​Data presented is for City of Toronto Only.   Source: TRREB.

➕ ‘the numbers’ for July are in!

Home sales in July remained strong and surpassed last year's levels, indicating that many households have adapted to higher borrowing costs. However, the sales momentum experienced earlier in the spring has slowed down since the Bank of Canada resumed its rate tightening cycle in June.


On the whole, the July market was more balance when compared to June - with sales trending lower and an increase in new listings.  This combination has shifted Toronto real estate into a slight ‘Buyers’ market environment.
    
Despite the uptick in new listings, Toronto continues to face challenges due to a persistent lack of listings, compounded by higher borrowing costs, impacting home sales over the last two months.


Uncertainty surrounding the economy and borrowing costs is keeping some potential homebuyers on the sidelines in the short term. Additionally, there is a mismatch in public policy related to housing, with little progress in creating more affordable ownership and rental housing despite the record levels of immigration targeted by the federal government.


Looking to buy or sell a home in Toronto?  Average prices in July were as follows:


➕Detached $1,641,045 [+8% vs. 2022]
➕Semi-detached $1,257,086 [-1% vs. 2022]
➕Townhouse $1,019,333 [+6% vs. 2022]
➕Condo $753,520 [+1% vs. 2022]

Data presented is for City of Toronto Only.   Source: TRREB.

What began as an extension of 2021’s high-flying real estate buying and selling frenzy soon enough tumbled and fell to a near standstill with the Bank of Canada’s hiking interest rates.  As rates rose, resale home sales fell and property sat on the sidelines far longer than expected, bucking the norm that Toronto’s Sellers had become accustomed to - transitioning Toronto from a strong ‘Sellers Market’ into a ‘Buyers Market’.  Paradoxically 2022, much like 2021, remained another challenging year for home and condo Buyers due to supply and affordability, however the forces at play were quite different.   We’ve taken a retrospective look at the year 2022 and identified the following three insights.   ​

➕‘the numbers’ for the first month of 2023 are in, and as expected, the data reflects a continuation of late 2022 trends.  The number of sales in January were similar to December, but are down significantly [-51%] when compared to the highly active January 2022 market.  Average selling prices in January across all property segments in January were down -8% vs. January 2022 - continuing to reflect the impact of higher borrowing costs.  As of January last year, the prime rate was 2.45% vs. 6.5% for January 2023.


“Home sales and selling prices appear to have found some support in recent months. This coupled with the Bank of Canada announcement that interest rate hikes are likely on hold for the foreseeable future will prompt some buyers to move off the sidelines in the coming months. Record population growth and tight labour market conditions will continue to support housing demand moving forward,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.
​

Looking to buy or sell a home in Toronto?  Average prices in January were as follows:

➕Detached $1,486,124 [-21% vs. 2022]
➕Semi-detached $1,150,506  [-22% vs. 2022]
➕Townhouse $981,187 [-9% vs. 2022]
➕Condo $711,171 [-7% vs. 2022]
••••••
Data presented is for City of Toronto Only.   Source: TRREB.

➕‘the numbers’ for November are in!  The market continues to be influenced by higher borrowing costs that commenced in the spring.  Total Sales have flattened month over month and remain down -50% when compared to November 2021.   However with inventory [new listings] near historic lows, the supply/demand equation has found some balance enabling average prices to stabilize since August.  That said, average selling prices remain down -4% in November vs. 2021, with declines are more pronounced in expensive market segments, including detached and semi-detached houses.


“Increased borrowing costs represent a short-term shock to the housing market. Over the medium- to long-term, the demand for ownership housing will pick up strongly. This is because a huge share of record immigration will be pointed at the GTA and the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) in the coming years, and all of these people will require a place to live, with the majority looking to buy. The long-term problem for policymakers will not be inflation and borrowing costs, but rather ensuring we have enough housing to accommodate population growth,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.
​

Looking to buy or sell a home in Toronto? Average prices in November were as follows:
➕Detached $1,560,548  [-14% vs. 2021]
➕Semi-detached $1,187,0162  [-17% vs. 2021]
➕Townhouse $995,074 [+1% vs. 2021]
➕Condo $734,797 [-1% vs. 2021]